Oil celebrities, i.e., oil experts, who have forecast the arrival of Peak Oil are discussed. Also discussed are the the famous oil people of yore who built the energy-rich economy we now live in. Famous oil fields are also discussed.
U.S. Peak Oil Production. As many oil celebrities have noted, Peak Oil production arrived in the US in 1970, precisely predicted by Dr. M. King Hubbert (see next section) in advance. No one worried too much at the time although the early 70's were characterized by high gas prices at the pump, mile-long gas station lines and, occasionally, folks fighting over their place in the gasoline line. I remember watching on TV men and women fist-fighting with each other for gasoline!
The US rolled up its sleeves, though, and soon small cars and energy efficiency improvements did the job (along with some nice oil field discoveries around the world) and we moved away from the threat of an oil shortage. Actually, for a short time, the price of oil retreated to below $10 per barrel and some of the oil exploration companies suffered.
Can we do it again? The crisis that went away is back again and bigger than ever. It is receiving quite a bit of publicity. Some of the geologists, petroleum engineers, and other oil people who have been warning the public and who will play a role in easing the adjustment to Peak Oil are discussed below:
1. Dr. M. King Hubbert (deceased). Probably, the most famous oil expert. He was a Shell Oil Company geologist who invented the concept of "Peak Oil". In 1956, Dr. Hubbert brought ridicule upon himself when he predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970. Such "chicken little" predictions had been made for decades but, somehow, new discoveries kept the doomsday scenarios at bay. So Dr. Hubbert was just one in a series of "crackpots" to make the peak oil prediction. Alas, when 1970 rolled around and US oil production peaked, Dr. Hubbert was no longer a crackpot but was now a visionary. His peak oil point on the curves became known as "Hubbert's Peak."
2. Kenneth S. Deffeyes. One of the famous oil experts. Professor emeritus of geology at Princeton. Worked at Shell Oil while Hubbert was there. He is now carrying the torch for the Hubbert's peak oil concept and applying it to world peak oil production which Deffeyes says will occur in the near future.
3. David Goodstein. Professor of Physics at the California Institute of Technology. In his work, Mr. Goodstein explains "underlying principles of the inevitable fossil fuel crisis we face and the closely related peril to the earth's climate. The discovery of any natural resource, oil included, rises rapidly at first but the rate of discovery eventually reaches a peak that will never be exceeded, and declines forever.
"Now a number of petroleum geologists have pointed out that worldwide discovery of oil peaked decades ago. As oil fields continue to be depleted and new discoveries, including advances in oil technology, fail to keep up, the prospect of a global Hubbert's peak looms before us."
The results of this global Hubbert's peak oil will be calamitous as discussed elsewhere in this web site. However, there is one bright spot according to Mr. Goodstein: "What is left of mother earth will, at least, be environmentally clean!."
Some consolation!
4. Richard Heinberg. A member of the core faculty at New College of California, Mr. Heinberg is an oil expert who has been writing about energy problems for many years. He offers an apocalyptic view of peak oil and the energy situation.
5. Stephen Leeb. Not one of the famous oil experts but one of the leading investment advisors and financial newsletter editors in the country who has jumped into the energy crisis and peak oil fray.
6. Vice-President Dick Cheney. Formerly one of the key oil people, ex-CEO of Halliburton, and key creator of US energy policy. He and President Bush had people looking for WMDs in Iraq when the real reason for the U.S. presence was the massive oil reserves of Iraq and the other Persian Gulf countries.
7. T. Boone Pickens. One of the best known of the Texas oil celebrities. One of the top oil experts and a well-known oil company raider of years past. He has surprised many by stating that "The peak is now." Certain other well-known oil experts who know better have deliberately obscured this peak oil fact.
8. Matthew Simmons. Another of the most famous oil people. A Houston energy analyst and a banker at Simmons & Co. International. Has stated that the world is fast running out of oil and has cast doubts on the ability of Saudi Arabia to increase its production. Has also stated that the price of oil should be at about $142 per barrel to enable the world to bridge the gap to the post-peak oil era.
And we complain about the present price of $ 105 per barrel.
9. Daniel Yergin. Won Pulitzer Prize winner for the book The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. Mr. Yergin is considered an authority on energy and international politics but some in the energy field deny that he has credentials in that field. Others are particularly upset that Mr. Yergin claims that oil had nothing to do with the US invasion of Iraq and his use of questionable data to show that the US is not that dependent on Middle East - and, in particular - Iraqi oil.
Mr. Yergin also uses somewhat questionable reserve data from difficult areas like the Caspian Sea (the Caspian Sea field is much overrated!), and North Sea (oil field in decline!), etc., to support his arguments that the energy situation in the world is not as grim as the Peak Oil adherents claim.
My assessment of Mr. Yergin: He is not a legitimate oil expert but is an apologist for the Bush Administration and their failure to formulate an effective energy strategy.
(Despite my criticism of Mr. Yergin playing down the energy crisis, I must note that the arrival of Peak Oil has apparently been delayed a few years and the energy crisis is not quite as dire as predicted a few years ago. A few new fields have been discovered and alternative energy sources are being developed.....but the energy crisis problems have simply been delayed, not resolved.)
10. Edwin Drake, the First of the Famous Oil People. In August, 1859, Edwin Drake drilled down about 70 feet and struck oil near Titusville, Pennsylvania. His crude well produced an amazing 25 barrels of oil per day. Drake had been hired by Seneca Oil Company to look for oil then they abandoned him before the well came in. But Drake continued on. Word had spread about Drake's quest and crowds of people began to gather at the well site to laugh at him. When the well came in, the laughter turned to cheers. The oil era had begun. (Will it soon end?)
Unfortunately, Drake failed to patent his invention. After failing to capitalize on his innovation, the first of the oil celebrities lost everything and died broke.
After all of America's advances in developing oil and gas, will we die broke also?
11. Alan Greenspan. Former Federal Reserve Chairman. While not an oil celebrity, Mr. Greenspan made some oil and natural gas-related comments on April 5, 2005 that thrust him directly into the limelight as a oil and gas celebrity. He made an appeal to let oil and gas market supply and demand be permitted to work out existing oil and natural gas shortages. Alan Greenspan's comments were as follows:
"We must remember that the same price signals that are also critical for balancing energy supply and demand in the short run also signal profit opportunities for long-term supply expansion. Moreover, they stimulate the research and development that will unlock new approaches to energy production and use that we can now only scarcely envision.
".....futures prices for delivery of .......crudes for the summer exceed spot prices. That will likely support increased inventories of crude oil. If sustained.......could encourage enough of an inventory buffer to damp the current price frenzy."
Mr. Greenspan later came out strong for LNG (also a favorite alternative energy source of mine!)
1. Ghawars. The largest field in Saudi Arabia (and the world) producing about 5 million barrels of oil per day. Accounts for about 60% of Saudi production. According to outspoken analyst and oil celebrity Simmons, above, the field is now in decline. The Saudis and some oil companies deny this.
Official reserves in Ghawars are about 70 billion barrels but there are strong questions raised as to whether or not the reserve totals are inflated.
2. Burgan Field. The second largest oil field is in Kuwait (some arguments on whether it is number 2). This field has reached peak production and production is now on a plateau or declining.
3. Cantarell Field. The huge Mexican oil field is now in rapid decline. This is one of only 4 or 5 oil fields in the world capable of producing at least a million barrels of oil per day. Decline of the field will be bad news for Mexico although they are feverishly trying to replace the lost production via other Mexican fields.
Mexico depends heavily on oil revenue and depletion of the Cantarell Field will mean problems for them. I recommend that the U.S. provide assistance (financial and otherwise) to Mexico to both revitalize the Cantarell Field and to get the new Mexican fields up and running.
4. North Sea. The Norwegian side of this giant field is just reaching its production peak now while, on the British side, production has peaked and is now declining at a rapid rate.
5 . Prudhoe Bay. This giant field located in northern Alaska is now badly depleted and, additionally, 16 miles of corroded pipe sections recently had to be replaced. The much-discussed, but still undeveloped, ANWR field is much smaller than Prudhoe Bay.
OPEC, the Most Famous Oil Organization. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. These countries organized in 1973 for the purpose of negotiating with oil companies on matters of oil production, price, etc. The current (2/05) OPEC members are: Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Of these nations, Saudi Arabia is by far the largest producer and has the largest proven reserves (some question the accuracy of the reserves claimed by Saudi Arabia.) OPEC has about 75% of the world's known oil reserves and is responsible for about 40 % of the oil produced and about 50 % of oil exports. It should be noted that the U.S. gets 10 % of its oil from the Persian Gulf.
The major non-OPEC oil producing nations are: United States, Russia, Mexico, China, Norway, United Kingdom, Kazahkstan, Azerbaijan, and Canada. Of these countries, domestic oil production is not adequate to supply the domestic market in the United States and China and they must import a major portion of the oil they consume. India, a smaller producer of oil than the countries listed above, must also import a major portion of its large domestic oil consumption.
The non-OPEC countries control about 90% of the world's refining capacity.
See Oil Company Stocks for famous (and infamous) companies involved in the oil & energy crisis fight.
1. Oil. Lets face it, folks. We're running out of oil.
2. Natural Gas. Natural gas is more plentiful than oil, but Peak Gas will eventually arrive. In the meantime, we need to turn to natural gas as an interim fuel source as the oil supply rapidly declines and as alternative energy sources are developed.
3. Global Warming. Al Gore is one of first celebrities to get involved in telling the story of global warming. Other celebrities will follow.
4. Oil & Energy Crisis. Peak oil is about here and an energy crisis and fuel shortages are developing! We will need our oil experts!
Summary of Famous Oil Experts & Oil Fields. The energy field, notably the oil and gas producing industry, has its share of famous oil experts and famous oil organizations. By the time we are finished struggling with peak oil and the accompanying energy crisis and fuel shortages, many more experts and companies in the energy field will become famous.
Last Updated: 05/09/08
e-mail me @ vanc13@cox.net
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